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04/15/2019

EUR/USD

The euro rose markedly against the US dollar on Friday, updating local highs of March 26. The development of "bullish" dynamics was supported by good macroeconomic data from the Eurozone and China, as well as a disappointing consumer confidence index from the USA. Exports from China in March showed a sharp increase of 14.2% YoY after a decline by 20.8% YoY in February. Analysts were expecting the growth of 7.3% YoY. Imports for the same period declined by 7.6% YoY after declining by 5.2% in February. Thanks to that, the trade surplus sharply increased in March and amounted to USD 32.64 billion, while the forecasts suggested an increase from USD 4.08 to 7.05 billion. European data showed a decline in industrial output in February by 0.2% MoM after rising by 1.9% MoM last month. The market expected a more rapid decline of 0.6% MoM.

GBP/USD

The British pound is trading against the US dollar in a positive trend, trying to recover from the ambiguous dynamics of the week before last. Despite the postponement, Brexit, of course, remains one of the main topics among investors. Prime Minister Theresa May is trying to fulfill her previous promises to form a coalition with the Labor Party in order to achieve a final agreement on the deal. Moderate support for the pound on Monday is provided by the Rightmove index on the dynamics of housing prices in the UK. In March, the index rose by 1.1% MoM after rising by 0.4% MoM last month. YoY, the indicator still shows negative dynamics, decreasing by 0.1%. On Monday, a speech of Jonathan Haskell, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England, is expected, and on Tuesday, the February data on the UK labor market will be released.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar steadily strengthened against the US dollar on Friday, updating local highs of February 27. The Australian currency was supported by Chinese macroeconomic statistics, as well as the rather voluminous report of the RBA on financial stability. The latter, although showed the lowering of growth prospects for the Australian economy, contained words about stabilized external risks and the improved situation on the labor market. Today the instrument is trading ambiguously, waiting for the appearance of new drivers. Investors are focused on the New York FRB index on business activity in the manufacturing sector, as well as the presentation of the Fed representative Charles Evans. Interesting statistics from Australia will appear on April 16, when the minutes of the RBA meeting will be published.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed moderate growth against the Japanese yen on Friday, marking new local highs since March 5. There were no interesting macroeconomic statistics from Japan, so investors concentrated on optimistic Chinese publications and were disappointed by data from the United States. According to preliminary estimates, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in April fell from 98.4 to 96.9 points, while the forecast was for a decline only to 98.0 points. At the beginning of the week, traders are focused on the trade negotiations of Japan and the United States, which will be held in Washington.

Oil

Oil prices resumed moderate growth on April 12, receiving support from the continued supply cuts from Venezuela and Iran. The armed conflict in Libya provides additional support for quotes. On Friday, the head of the Libyan National Oil Corporation warned against the further escalation of the conflict, which, in his opinion, could completely destroy the production in the country. More confident growth on Friday was hindered by the Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the USA, reflecting their growth from 831 to 833 units.

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