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04/09/2019

EUR/USD

The euro rose significantly against the US dollar on Monday, marking a new local maximum since March 27. The growth was mainly due to technical factors, while macroeconomic statistics from Europe remained ambiguous. February data from Germany indicated a sharp decline in imports and exports. Imports slowed down by 1.6% MoM after rising by 1.4% MoM last month. Exports collapsed by 1.3% MoM after rising by 0.1% MoM. However, due to a sharp decline in imports, it was possible to achieve an increase in the trade surplus from 18.6 billion to 18.7 billion euros, while analysts expected a decline to EUR 17.0 billion. Today, the euro is trading with a slight "bullish" margin. It is likely that the dynamics of trading on Tuesday will remain moderate, since interesting macroeconomic publications are not planned. Investors are focused on Wednesday when the ECB’s interest rate decision is published and the EU Brexit summit begins.

GBP/USD

The British pound is trading upwards, awaiting positive outcomes of the EU summit, which will be held on April 10. To date, Teresa May has not been able to get closer to the approval of the current agreement in Parliament, so everyone is only betting on the postponement of the terms of Brexit. Yesterday, the House of Commons approved a bill that bans the "tough" Brexit, that is, the country's withdrawal from the EU without an agreement. Previously, this bill was approved in the House of Lords. However, in the matter of postponement, everything will depend on the EU, and not on the UK, since the consent of all the member countries is necessary to change the deadlines. On Tuesday, Teresa May will hold a series of meetings with Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron and try to convince them to give a longer respite.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar strengthened markedly against the US dollar on Monday, receiving support against the background of the development of corrective sentiment on the US currency. The macroeconomic statistics published yesterday did not significantly support any of the currencies. The ANZ job vacancy rate in Australia in March fell sharply by 1.7% MoM after falling by 0.8% MoM last month. American statistics pointed to a reduction in production orders by 0.5% MoM after zero dynamics last month. Today, AUD is trading in an uptrend, receiving support from macroeconomic statistics. The volume of mortgage loans in February rose by 2.0% after declining by 2.5% last month. Analysts expected -2.0%. Investment borrowing for home construction in February also rose by 2.6% MoM after a decrease of 2.3% MoM last month.

USD/JPY

The US dollar is falling against the Japanese yen, retreating from local highs of March 15. At the same time, publications from Japan strengthen the yen a little. On Monday, investors were disappointed with data on the consumer confidence index, which fell in March from 41.5 to 40.5 points, while the forecast was for growth to 42.3 points. The Eco Watchers current situation index in March fell from 47.5 to 44.8 points, which was worse than market expectations of 46.7 points. The development index for the same period adjusted from 48.9 to 48.6 points (forecast 49.3 points).

Oil

Oil prices continue to grow steadily, updating record highs. Brent crude updated its highs on November 12, receiving support from the escalation of the conflict in Libya and a confident reduction in oil supplies under the leadership of OPEC+. Additional support for the instrument is provided by continued US sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan oil. Today, investors will focus on the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) on oil reserves for the week of April 5. Recall that the last API report reflected growth of 2.963 million barrels, which was later confirmed by steady growth in stocks according to the US Department of Energy.

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